Johns Hopkins University Press, June 2001

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Ch. 1 The Ancient Law of Proof
Egypt and Babylon
The Talmud
Roman Law: Proof and Presumptions
Indian Law
Ch. 2 The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-Proof and Inquisition
The Dark Ages
The Gregorian Revolution
The Glossators Invent "Half-Proof"
Presumptions in Canon Law
Innocent III
Grades of Evidence, and Torture
The Post-Glossators Bartolus and Baldus: The Completed Theory
The Inquisition
Maimonides on Testimony
Law in the East
Ch. 3 Renaissance Law
Henry VIII Presumed Wed
The Tudor Treason Trials
Continental Law: The Treatises on Presumptions
The Witch Inquisitors
English Legal Theory and the Reasonable Man
Ch. 4 The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty
Penance, and doubts
The Doctrine of Probabilism
Suarez: Negative and Positive Doubt
Grotius, Silhon and the Morality of the State
Hobbes and the Risk of Attack
The Scandal of Laxism
English Casuists Pursue the Middle Way
Juan Caramuel Lobkowitz, Prince of Laxists
Pascal's Provincial Letters
Ch. 5 Rhetoric, Logic, Theory
The Greek Vocabulary of Probability
The Sophists Sell the Art of Persuasion
Aristotle's Rhetoric and Logic
The Rhetoric to Alexander
Roman Rhetoric: Cicero and Quintilian
The Last Ancient Authors
Islamic Logic
The Scholastic Dialectical Syllogism
Probability in Ordinary Language
Humanist Rhetoric
Late Scholastic Logics
Ch. 6 Hard Science
Observation and Theory
Aristotle's "Not by Chance" Argument
Averaging of Observations in Greek Astronomy
Nicole Oresme on Relative Frequency
Kepler Harmonises Observations
Galileo on the Probability of the Copernican Hypothesis
Ch. 7 Soft Science and History
The Physiognomics
Divination and Astrology
The Empiric School of Medicine on Drug Testing
The Talmud and Maimonides on Majorities
"Vernacular" Averaging and Quality Control
Experimentation in Biology
The Authority of Histories
The Authenticity of Documents
Valla and the Donation of Constantine
Cano on the Signs of True Histories
Ch. 8 Philosophy: Action and Induction
Carneades's Mitigated Scepticism
The Epicureans on Inference from Signs
Inductive Scepticism, and Avicenna's Reply
Aquinas on Tendencies
Scotus and Ockham on Induction
Nicholas of Autrecourt
The Decline of the West
Bacon and Descartes: Certainty, or Moral Certainty?
The Jesuits and Hobbes on Induction
Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science
Ch. 9 Religion: Inferring God's Existence and Will
The Argument from Design
The End of Antiquity
John of Salisbury
Maimonides on Creation
Are Laws of Nature Necessary?
The Reasonableness of Christianity
Pascal's Wager
Ch. 10 Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities and Bets
The Price of Peril
Doubtful Claims in Jewish Law
Olivi on Usury and Future Profits
Pricing Life Annuities
Speculation in Public Debt
Insurance Rates
Renaissance Bets, Lotteries and Speculation
Commerce and the Casuists
Ch. 11 Dice
The Medieval Manuscript on the Interrupted Game
Gamblers and Casuists
Gataker on Randomization in Lots
Galileo's Fragment
De Mere and Roberval
The Fermat-Pascal Correspondence
Afterword and Conclusions
Sub-symbolic Probability and The Transition to Symbols
The Kinds of Probability, and the Stages in Discovering Them
Why Not Earlier?
Two Parallel Histories
The Genius of the Scholastics, and the Orbit of Aristotle
The Place of Law in the History of Ideas
Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability
The Port-Royal Logic
Leibniz's Logic of Probability
To the Present
Review of work on probability before 1660
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